The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cautioned that Pakistan will likely face more frequent and severe floods and other extreme weather events due to climate change. The government must prepare in advance to mitigate potential damage.
According to the ADB’s latest report titled “Applying Spatial Analysis to Assess Crop Damage: A Case Study of Pakistan 2022 Floods,” Pakistan is highly susceptible to floods and faces an increasing risk of water-related disasters due to the anticipated effects of climate change. It’s crucial to strategize the use of real-time crop damage assessments, such as spatial analysis, to facilitate immediate disaster assistance and recovery efforts.
Pakistan is recognized among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, particularly concerning extreme weather events and natural disasters. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 ranked Pakistan as the 8th most vulnerable nation worldwide. Projections indicate that Pakistan will experience temperatures rising above the global average and an upsurge in days with heat indexes exceeding 35°C. This progressive warming and periodic heatwaves are expected to accelerate glacial melting, amplify the frequency and intensity of droughts, and reduce water availability for agricultural purposes. Furthermore, observed variations in monsoon rainfall patterns have heightened uncertainty regarding water availability and its implications for food security.
Over half of Pakistan’s population relies directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood, making agriculture production highly vulnerable to climate and weather events. Climate warming is projected to increase water demand by up to 60% by 2047 compared to current levels, leading to a significant decline in crop and livestock productivity.
In June-August 2022, unprecedented torrential rains and flooding devastated Pakistan. Post-flood, the government conducted a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) with support from various international organizations. Experts from 17 sectors collaborated closely with federal and provincial authorities to gather data from 94 affected districts. The PDNA estimated economic losses from the floods at $14.9 billion, with the agriculture sector bearing a substantial impact. Approximately 1.8 million hectares of cropland were damaged, resulting in a $3.7 billion loss. Remote sensing technology was used to validate data on crop damage, enhancing data accuracy.
ADB has proposed recommendations to improve crop monitoring, including increasing the number of GIS and remote sensing specialists in government agencies, integrating spatial analysis into statistical reporting systems, and familiarizing policymakers with spatial analysis results.
Furthermore, ADB’s report “Regional Action on Climate Change” outlines plans to deploy the Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) region. This mechanism aims to accelerate the retirement of coal-fired power plants and pursue strategic decarbonization in various sectors.
The years 2022-2023 witnessed severe climate-related events in the region, underscoring the urgent need for carbon emissions control and increased resilience measures to mitigate future impacts.
